- Mathematical modeling of infectious disease transmission dynamics, with a focus on HIV and other sexually transmitted infections
- Simulation science for clinical and public health decision-making
- Systems and data-science
We try to answer the following questions:
- Why do outbreaks and epidemics establish and persist where and when they do, and what leads to differences in their trajectories, size, and characteristics across regions?
- How can we optimize the design and delivery of disease control programs by health-system and epidemic context?
- How can we build better models and use data better to inform disease prevention and care?
- What drives the observed heterogeneity in infectious disease risk and health outcomes at the individual and population-level?
We work with different ‘layers’ of data: molecular/biological, clinical, demographic, behavioral, health-system, and economic. We use a combination of statistical and epidemic modeling techniques, and design ‘virtual experiments’ with our models.
Mathematical modeling, HIV/STI epidemiology, HIV/STI epidemics, Infectious Disease transmission dynamics, Simulation science, Data science
Our aim is to work as “embedded” mathematical modelers – as scientists grounded in, and driven by the front-line programs that implement and deliver services to achieve individual and public health impact. We work to support national and local ministries of health and community-based organizations focused on the prevention and care of HIV and other STIs and blood-borne infections, and more recently – tuberculosis and Ebola. Our work in Ontario and Manitoba supports ongoing efforts at addressing local HIV and syphilis epidemics using a program science lens. Much of our global health efforts support HIV/STI programs in India, Kenya, South Africa, and Ukraine; and (ii) the Ebola outbreak response and health-systems strengthening in Sierra Leone.
- Assistant Professor, Department of Medicine and Institute of Medical Sciences, University of Toronto
- Scientist, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital